Oregon Homeownership and Tenure and State Rankings and Changes 2007-2006.

I have put together a summary of changes in Oregon homeownership rates and tenure using 2006 and 2007 American Community Survey data.

The PDF file HERE includes an Oregon summary and a detailed listing of HO rates for all states, including minority home ownership rates and ranks.

Summary of Rank Changes 07-06:

1. Oregon's overall HO rate ranked 44th. with no change from 2006.
2. African American HO rate ranking improved slightly from 39th. to 37th.
3. American Indian/Alaskan Native HO rate ranking improved slightly from 44th. to 43th.
4. Asian ranking declined from 10th to 13th.
5. Hawaiian Islander/Pac Island HO rate ranking improved from 20th. to 10th.--(I suspect this is an error as the count of renters decreased substantially).
   
6. White, NOT Hispanic HO rate ranking improved slightly from 47th. to 46th.
7. Hispanic HO rate ranking improved slightly from 36th. to 34th.
8. Oregon's Asian and Native Hawaiian/Pac Islander HO rates are the only Oregon HO rates that exceed the US average (and I think the Native Hawaiian/ Pac Islander rate is suspect).
   

Oregon Progress Board: Revise Homeownership Rate Goal Data Source but Defers New Target Until ?

The Oregon Progress Board has revised the state home ownership data source to the American Community Survey, acknowledging that prior reported Oregon Population Survey rates were about 2% higher than ACS data.

However, in revising the source of the data, the Progress Board has also eliminated the prior home ownership rate goals of 70% for 2005 and 72% in 2010, adding that"targets are not proposed at this time"

Progress Board summary of the revision is HERE.

Notes:

1. The change in this measurement has been approved by the Progress Board Assessment Committee--it may be that the full Progress Board has to ratify that decision at their next meeting, scheduled for October 23rd. (Agenda for that meeting is not yet posted).
2. New ACS data on housing is scheduled for release in late September.

Oregon Progress Board Renter Median HH Income Is 26% Below ACS Estimate for 2006, Invalidates OPB Rent Burden %'s

This is the first in a series of reviews of Oregon Progress Board Housing Benchmark Data and focuses on Renter Household Incomes and Rent Burdened Percentages.

Progress Board: The Oregon Progress Board [OPB] has changed the statement of this goal over time, invalidating comparisons to early periods. The now stated goal is that no more than 70% of renter households [HH's] below rental median income will pay more than 30% their income for rent. [See page 7 of 2007 Benchmark summary report HERE]

The Progress Board reports that the median rental household income for 2006 was $22.669 and that 82% of renters at that income level paid more than 30% of their income for rent in 2006. (You can confirm renter median income from OPB by generating a specific report HERE).

ACS 2006: The Census American Community Survey [ACS] estimates (Table B25119) that Oregon 2006 renter median household income was $28,582. (The 2005 ACS reported Oregon Renter Household Median Income estimate was $26,385, increasing to $27,236 in 2006 inflation adjusted dollars].

Analysis: OPB's estimated median renter household income for 2006 is $5,913 and 26.1% BELOW the 2006 ACS estimate and $1,346 and 4.9% BELOW the one year earlier inflation adjusted 2005 ACS renter household median estimate.

This wide variance in income directly impacts the accuracy of the rent burdened estimate, as rent burdens generally decrease as incomes increase. Higher ACS estimated renter median HH incomes would suggest that the percentage of below median rent burdened HH's was less than OPB reported.

[Note: ACS data available in the Fact Finder site does not directly provide rent burdens for median income renter HH's, so that no direct comparison can be made with OPB counts and percentages. Those with more skill , time, and software tools than I have MAY be able to calculate such a direct comparison using downloaded PUMS data and I encourage users to try that if they wish ].

Recommendation for Oregon Progress Board: Use ACS Data on Rent Burdens and Renter Median HH Income.

While I appreciate that there are differences in survey methods, including the size of sample and the period sampled, there is no way IMO that a difference of 26.1% in renter HH median income can be explained away by those variations.

OPB already selectively uses other ACS data. With ACS gradually expanding coverage to include smaller areas, if the Oregon Progress Board switched to using ACS data on rent burdens and median renter HH income:

• More valid year to year to year comparisons could be made.
• Some local geographies could be added to track this benchmark.
  
• Direct comparisons to other states could be made.
  

Moreover, OPB would be improve this benchmark to report not only above 30% , but also above 50% rent burdens, which disproportionately affect the lowest income Oregon renters.