The looming potential loss of the PUA and PEUC unemployment insurance programs as of Dec 26, and the phase out of the Extended Benefit program that begins on December 13 could substantially reduce the number of Oregon continuing claims for unemployment insurance by January 1st.
The table pasted below has my analysis of continuing claims counts using the most recent weekly unemployment data (for the week that ended on November 21st).
Total continuing UI claims as of November 21 were 267,026.
I project that could decline to as few as 89,041continuing claims.
The loss of PUA (121,506 claims) and PEUC (60,715 claims) coupled with the reduction of EB (3,413 claims) could result in a TOTAL reduction of 177, 985/67% continuing claims, even IF regular UI claims went UP by 7,649/10%/ .
NOTES and CAVEATS:
- Continuing workshare claims are included in the 76,492 "continued claims" column.
- These figures do NOT include initial claims (but I inflated the "continuing claims" claims column by 10% to reflect a recent pick up in initial claims).
- I would look at these estimates as CURRENT UPPER BOUND estimates. PEUC claimants may be able to switch to the EB program and weekly PUA claim counts can show substantial variation because of delayed dates of filing and entry of multi week claims. Also, if total PUA and PEUC continuing claims count decline significantly before December 26, the numerical and percentage declines will be less than my estimates.
- These are NOT counts of current or projected discrete recipients. OED has previously estimated that 70,000 recipients will lose coverage by the end of the year but was not able to provide a projection of the percentage or numerical decline from the current count of discrete recipients.
- The hope of course is that PUA and PEUC programs will be extended, but as of this date there is no certainty that will happen.
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.
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