New GAO Report on TARP Costs Says Costs Down, Big CBO/Treasury Differences Exist about Housing Costs.

GAO report is HERE.  From the report: 

 In 2009, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that TARP could cost $356 billion. However, CBO’s most recent estimate, using November 2011 data, is approximately $34 billion.

Treasury’s fiscal year 2011 financial statement, audited by GAO, reported that TARP would cost around $70 billion as of September 30, 2011, a decrease from about $78 billion estimated as of September 2010.

…. program participation assumptions for TARP-funded housing programs explain the large difference between the CBO and Treasury cost estimates.

Treasury assumed that all of the $45.6 billion allocated to TARP housing programs would be utilized and, as a result, estimated that they would cost $45.6 billion.

Conversely, CBO expected lower participation rates for the housing programs, resulting in a cost estimate of $13 billion as of November 2011

If you do the math you will see that:

1. Housing program costs represent 38% of projected TARP costs according to CBO and 65% according to Treasury.  
2. Treasury's estimated TARP housing program cost is 251% higher than the estimated CBO TARP housing program costs.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Making Home Affordable Home Owner/HAMP Event Coming to Portland Dec 3rd, After Scheduled Start Date for New Fannie/Freddie Refinance Program.

From HAMP national website, found bilingual flyer for this Saturday Convention Center event HERE.  

Treasury, HUD, Neighborworks and HOPENOW logos are included on the flyer. 

First Oregon Session Where New Refinancing Guidelines May be In Effect for Fannie/Freddie Loans

Refinancing guidelines for the new HARP program for Fannie and Freddie loans are expected to be released Nov 15, with lenders expected to accept applications in December. This event is likely the FIRST where home owners can interact with lenders to discuss  eligibility for this new refinancing program. (FHFA website for new HARP program is HERE).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

3 Big Servicers [B of A, Chase, Wells] Cut off From HAMP Fees.

WaPo story HERE.  Servicers are Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo.

Story says they received $24 million in funds last month. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated: First Evah Oregon Database of 40,000+ Current HAMP Records.

Update: I added the data dictionary worksheet to the smaller Excel file below, link stays the same.
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For several months the Treasury has been releasing loan level data on HAMP loan modifications. Frankly it is a HUGE pain to deal with this data but on a one time basis I successfully extracted Oregon data for more than 40,000 HAMP records (applications and loans). (Data is of March 2011, new data is scheduled for release this Friday if you are a glutton for punishment).

The Oregon data I extracted is in an Excel workbook HERE. It is a very LARGE file (334 MB's) and your PC will require significant resources to open; even with my 8 GB memory notebook opening the file takes a long time after file has been downloaded. (see also Excel downloading tip at bottom of this post). 

If you want a MUCH smaller file, I have uploaded JUST the 1st worksheet with all 40,294 records HERE; it is just 25 MB's (In update I added second worksheet, the data dictionary). This might be better option for many, as once downloaded you can add filters, sort, or add pivot table to extract data of interest.

The full Excel file has a total of 6 worksheets, the number of records in each worksheet is shown in parenthesis.

1. All Oregon HAMP Records (40,294 records)
2. All Active Payment Records (7,629 records)
3. PIVOT All Active Payment Records (7,629 records)
4. All records with NPV data (5,478 records) [These are all active payment records].
5. Summary Active Loan Savings; this worksheet shows the total and average monthly and annual savings by metro area. (Because Oregon only Portland PMSA data cannot be isolated, the statewide total for Oregon is somewhat inflated by the inclusion of Clark County Wa. HAMP activity).
6. Data Dictionary. This includes names for each of the 148 date fields in the merged loan modification and net present value files.

Observations on the Summary Worksheet

1. For Active Payment loans

• The average monthly savings from active payment HAMP loans in Oregon is $563 per family; that's an average of $6,756 on an annual basis. Total annual savings from Oregon active payment HAMP loans is $36.994 million. (This is NOT cost to government, gov pays only 50% of cost to get family to 31% front ratio, plus incentives for continued timely payments).

• Highest average monthly savings were in Bend at $650, lowest in Salem at $464.

The summary worksheet I have include only begins to scratch the surface of the Oregon data available in the HAMP database; I encourage more in depth analysis from others. Treasury could make data a LOT easier to use by posting state level CSV files that combined the two data files and by posting data field descriptive names as a CSV file. 

To help others understand how I put together my workbook I have outlined the process I used below.

Process Used to Create Workbook.

1. I copied data field names from Treasury PDF file, for 148 data fields, and downloaded two .CSV files from Treasury website HERE. 
2. In loan mod file, Treasury combines data for several states in one file so I had to extract Oregon MSA data AND Oregon data for loans without MSA's. NPV file did not contain geographic fields so using the Financial Asset ID Number field I had to merge with loan mod file to link NPV data to loan mod data.
3. Using new Oregon loan mod file I added lookup formulas to find values for all Oregon loan mods where NPV data was available. (This took a long long time because formulas had to search for data in 40+ NPV data fields for each of the 40,000+ Oregon HAMP records). (Linking an Oregon only loan mod table with NPV table using Financial Asset ID Number field in MS Access might accomplish same task more efficiently).

Downloading Tip-This workbook was created in Excel 2007 format. Some users report they cannot direct view Excel files in this format from within their browser and that Excel files they save end up with a compressed .zip file extension. My suggestion is to RIGHT CLICK and save the file to your PC. Then navigate to the file you downloaded and look at its file extension. IF it appears as .ZIP extension, change the .ZIP extension to an Excel 2007 extension (.xlsx), and THEN open the file with Excel 2007/2010

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Termination of FHA Short Refinance Program Clears House, with Oregon's Schrader Joining Republicans.

The House passed a bill (HR 830) that would terminate the FHA short refinance program.  The vote was largely along party lines with some Democrats joining the Republican majority, including Oregon Rep Curt Schrader.  

The Administration says that they will veto the bill if it is passed by the Senate.

The CBO cost estimate for this bill HERE says that the program costs $13,000 per mortgage, that it would eliminate 13,000 possible refinances, and save $175 million from 2011-2021:

As of January 31, 2011, about 40 loans have been refinanced under the program. Based on data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, CBO estimates that the refinanced loans cost the government an average of $13,000 on a present- value basis. CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 830 would prevent the refinancing of about 13,000 mortgages under the program. In total, CBO estimates that enacting the bill would reduce direct spending by $175 million over the 2011-2021 period.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

House Financial Services Committee Markup Tomorrow of Bills to End Four Existing Foreclosure Relief Programs, Including HAMP and NSP 3.

PR is HERE;  Text of actual bills can be found HERE. Subcommittee hearing is today, full Committee markup tomorrow.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

December HAMP Report Shows Oregon Permanent Loan Modification Total of 4,791 ADDED During Last Year, Current Inventory 5,666.

Double Click to Enlarge

I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through December in tables I constructed HERE.

Observations: Pace of Trial AND Permanent Monthly Loan Modifications Had an Uptick in December, But Pace Still Below Earlier in Year. 

   1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications  grew to 1,668 in December, UP from November's 1,586; nonetheless, the decline in Oregon is 7,220 or 81% since the start of the year. (This matches the national decline of 81% since the start of the year).

   2. At the December pace, Oregon would run out of trial loan modifications that could be converted to permanent mods in 20 months, a longer period than in earlier months.

  3. Oregon's permanent loan modifications inventory  continues to increase, reaching 5,666 active permanent loan modifications, an increase of 548% (4,791) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 548% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 685%.

   4. Oregon's permanent loan modification inventory increased by 188 during December, down from the November increase of 205, but up significantly from the 129 added in October. The December increase is still down dramatically from the peak month increase of 741 in April, and a 594 increase in January 2010. 

I have updated a GRAPH inserted at the top of this post that shows the monthly decline in the monthly rate of permanent modifications added in Oregon. And, below is a table showing the change in the last year in the counts of permanent loan modification inventory for the state and  Metro areas where data is available:

Area	Dec 2010 Inventory	December 2009 Inventory	# Increase in Inventory	% Increase in Inventory
OREGON	5,666	875	4,791	548%
Bend	520	98	422	431%
Corvallis	37	2	35	1750%
Eugene-Springfield	400	56	344	614%
Medford	466	85	381	448%
Portland MSA, Incl Vancouver	3,939	627	3,312	528%
Salem	536	70	466	666%

HUD has published the January national Housing Scorecard HERE.

The December national HAMP report can be found HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Unexpected: HAMP Data from Servicers Says, for Mods Where Race/Ethnicity Was Reported, More than Half of Mods Were for Minorities/ One Quarter Were Hispanic.

The latest HAMP reports are out and now include new loan level data files which are HUGE and will be a pain to analyze. (Treasury has done a minimal job in making the data user friendly and many data fields appear to be empty, including state and metro code fields).  

One thing that caught my eye is the Treasury national summary of loan mods by race and ethnicity. Their data shows that since December 2009, for those mods were race was reported, more than HALF of all loan mods were for minorities, and more than one quarter were Hispanic, as shown in the table below.  (Double click on table to increase visibility).

(HERE is data explanation from Treasury that includes this table from page 7. Note that preceding table on that page shows that race/ethnicity was not reported for 30%+ of applicants; including all applicants reduces minority/ Hispanic %'s significantly ). 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Mortgage Metrics Report: Goodies #2--Oregon Data.

In my earlier post HERE, I extracted some national data from the third Quarter 2010 OTS Mortgage Metrics report, which can be found using the link the right pane.

For the first time this report includes state data and I have consolidated select table data for the US, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington in a PDF document I created HERE. 

Some observations (and report problems):

1. Table 48: During the THIRD quarter there were a total of 2,517 Oregon loan modifications implemented. ONLY 590 (23.4%) of these loan modifications were HAMP loan modifications and 1,927 (76.6%) were NON HAMP modifications.
2. Table 53: 425 of a total of 2,517 Oregon modifications implemented in THIRD quarter were modifications that reduced principal and interest payment by 20% or more.(Problem: Adding columns does not equal total modifications column in this table).
3. Table 54: Shows that 55.9% of Oregon modifications in THIRD quarter decreased principal and interest payments by 20% or more. (Problem: That % is not consistent   with values in table 53).
4. Table 56: 18.3 % of ALL Oregon Loans modified in the FIRST quarter were 60 days or more delinquent after 6 months. That % declines to 11.7% for loans where principal and interest was decreased by 20% or more.(Using data in this table I calculate that 439 of 2,399 Oregon loans modified in the FIRST quarter were 60 days or more delinquent 6 months later).
5. General problems: Data for HAMP and non HAMP loans are lumped together so it is not possible at state level to see relative performance of HAMP loan modifications vs NON HAMP loan modifications. There is also no breakout of GSE or government assisted loan modification performance at the state level.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

3rd Quarter Mortgage Metric Report Goodies, #1.

The OTS Qtrly Mortgage Metrics report link in the right pane will get you to the recently released 3rd Quarter 2010  report.  From the Executive summary of that report I have copied and am pasting below an extensive series of national goodies from that report. (Later, I will add a second "goodies" post with data on Oregon mortgage metrics). The data summarized in this report represent 64 percent of all first-lien residential mortgages outstanding in the country from reporting institutions servicing 33.3 million first-lien mortgage loans, totaling more than $5.8 trillion in outstanding balances (I have taken the liberty of bold facing data that seemed particularly important to note):

• The percentage of mortgages that were current and performing remained unchanged from the previous quarter at 87.4 percent of the total servicing portfolio, indicating no change in overall credit quality. However, foreclosures in process, up 6 percent since the prior quarter and 12 percent from one year ago, reached a new high of 3.6 percent of the total serviced portfolio
• Seriously delinquent mortgages—mortgages that were 60 or more days delinquent or delinquent loans to bankrupt borrowers—declined across all risk categories to 5.8 percent of the serviced portfolio overall. Although elevated from historic norms, this third consecutive quarterly decline in serious delinquencies brought them to their lowest level in more than a year.
• Home retention activity included 233,853 permanent modifications during the third quarter, a 12.5 percent decrease from the previous quarter.
• More than 88 percent of modifications implemented during the quarter decreased monthly principal and interest payments. More than 54 percent of those modifications reduced payments by 20 percent or more. On average, modifications during the second quarter reduced borrowers’ monthly principal and interest payments by $396. Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) modifications implemented during the quarter reduced payments by an average of $585.
• Government-guaranteed mortgages performed worse than the overall portfolio. While decreasing slightly from the previous quarter, the percentage of current and performing government-guaranteed mortgages increased 2.6 percent from a year ago. Of those mortgages, 85.1 percent were current and performing at the end of the third quarter . Increased origination of these loans continued in the third quarter, with government-guaranteed mortgages composing 19 percent of the total portfolio.
• Mortgages serviced for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSEs) performed better than the overall portfolio because of their higher concentration of prime mortgages. Of the GSE mortgages, 92.3 percent were current and performing at the end of the third quarter . Loans serviced for the two GSEs made up 61 percent of the total portfolio.
• Servicers implemented 470,321 new home retention actions—loan modifications, trial-period plans, and payment plans—during the quarter. This represents a 17.0 percent decline from the previous quarter. HAMP modifications decreased by 45.7 percent during the quarter while other modifications increased by 10.1 percent. New HAMP trial plans decreased by 33.2 percent, and other trial-period plans decreased 21.0 percent from the previous quarters (see table 1). Servicers report that this decline resulted from requirements to obtain, verify, and analyze borrower income before beginning a trial period plan and the falling number of borrowers who are eligible for existing modification programs.
• ..servicers capitalized missed payments and fees in 87.5 percent of all modifications made during the third quarter and reduced interest rates in 86.2 percent of modifications. Term extensions were used in 57.4 percent of all modifications, principal deferrals in 10.1 percent, and principal reductions in 4.5 percent. Principal deferral was used in 24.6 percent of HAMP modifications, while principal reduction was used in 10.2 percent of the HAMP modifications
• Overall, servicers reduced principal and interest payments in 88.2 percent of all loan modifications made during the quarter, and they reduced payments by 20 percent or more in 54.1 percent of those modifications. As in previous quarters, nearly all HAMP modifications implemented during the third quarter reduced borrower principal and interest payments, and 76.0 percent reduced monthly payments by 20 percent or more.
• Servicers modified 1,506,025 loans from the beginning of 2008 through the second quarter of 2010. At the end of the third quarter of 2010, 48.0 percent of these modifications remained current or were paid off. Another 10.2 percent were 30 to 59 days delinquent. Almost 24 percent of the modifications were seriously delinquent, 9.4 percent were in the process of foreclosure, and 4.2 percent had completed the foreclosure process
• 58.9 percent of modifications that reduced payments by 10 percent or more were current and performing, compared with the 33.4 percent of modifications that reduced payments by less than 10 percent.
•  More recent modifications have performed better than earlier modifications every quarter since the end of the first quarter of 2009, though the rate of improvement appears to be moderating. At 6 months after modification, 20.2 percent of the modifications made in the fourth quarter of 2009 were seriously delinquent compared with 33.5 percent of the modifications made during the second quarter of 2009
• HAMP modifications performed better than other modifications implemented during the same periods at the end of the third quarter of 2010. At 6 months after modification, the re-default rate for HAMP modifications, measured as 60 or more days delinquent at 6 months after the modification, was about half that of other modifications for loans modified during the fourth quarter 2009 and first quarter 2010.
• After 6 months,14.6 percent of modifications implemented since the second quarter of 2009 that decreased monthly payments by 20 percent or more were seriously delinquent. In contrast, 28.1 percent of modifications that left payments unchanged and 42.6 percent of modifications that increased payments were seriously delinquent.
• Newly initiated foreclosures increased 31.2 percent from the previous quarter and 3.7 percent from a year ago, reflecting the large number of seriously delinquent mortgages and loans in process of foreclosure progressing toward foreclosure sale. Foreclosures in process increased 4.5 percent from the previous quarter and 10.1 percent from a year ago. More than 1.2 million mortgages were in the process of foreclosure at the end of the third quarter of 2010.
• Since January 2008, national banks have recognized $53.4 billion in losses from home equity portfolios according to the federal financial call report, more than 11 times the losses recognized over the previous five year period. Thrifts recognized more than $4.9 billion in home equity losses during that same period.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHA Short Refinance Program Continues to Under Perform.

Data for November shows applications for the FHA Short Refinance program funded with TARP money continue to under perform. In my earlier post (HERE) I indicated that there were a total of 35 applications for the FHA short refinance program through October. 

November saw 40 additional applications and the first actually endorsed loan, so in last 3 months the FHA short refinance total was 75 applications and one endorsement.  

The table below shows FY 2010 and latest 3 monthly counts for the FHA Short Refinance program and counts for FHA's earlier HOPE for Homeowners program:

	Applications		Endorsements
Period	H4H	Short Refinance	H4H	Short Refinance
FY 2010	340	14	107
Sep-10	29	14	11
Oct-10	66	21	22
Nov-10	88	40	27	1
3 Months	183	75	60	1

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

November HAMP Update Shows Uptick in Permanent Loan Modifications.

I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through November in tables I constructed HERE.

Observations: Pace of Permanent Monthly Loan Modifications Had an Uptick in November, Monthly Permanent Modification Graph Updated for Oregon.

   1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications continue to shrink to 1,586; that is down by 7,302 or 82% since the start of the year. (Nationally, the decline is 81% since the start of the year).
   2. An active trial loan modification inventory reduction of 83 in November is at a FAR slower pace than ALL proceeding months during the year. At the slower November pace Oregon would run out of trial loan modifications that could be converted to permanent mods but it would now take 19 months, a much longer period than in earlier months.

  3. Oregon's inventory of active permanent loan modifications continues to increase, reaching 5,478, an increase of 526% (4,603) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 526% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 666%.
   4. Oregon's permanent loan modification inventory increased by 205 during November, up significantly from the 129 added in October. However the November increase is still down dramatically from the peak month increase of 741 in April, and a 594 increase in January 2010. I have added updated a GRAPH HERE that shows the monthly decline in the rate of permanent modifications added in Oregon.

HUD has published the DECEMBER Housing Scorecard HERE.

The November national HAMP report can be found HERE.(In a note HUD has said that the NEXT HAMP report will not be issued until Feb 1st, so reporting can align with the HUD Housing Scorecard).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Congressional Oversight Panel Report Focus on HAMP.

Web page for report is HERE; actual report is HERE. Finally, the executive summary is HERE. From the report:

The Panel now estimates that, if current trends hold, HAMP will prevent only 700,000 foreclosures -- far fewer than the three to four million foreclosures that Treasury initially aimed to stop, and vastly fewer than the eight to 13 million foreclosures expected by 2012.

On the Hardest Hit program the report says, 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last month projected that Treasury will spend only $12 billion on all TARP housing programs, including HAMP and the Hardest Hit Fund, out of the $45.6 billion in TARP funds allocated for those programs. While the CBO did not publish a breakdown of how it expects the projected $12 billion to be divided between the
various TARP housing programs, if one assumes that the Hardest Hit Fund-recipient states will spend the $7.6 billion allocated to them in grants, that would leave only $4.4 billion to be spent on HAMP and the other TARP housing programs. [Editor's comment: HH would thus represent 63% of All TARP funding].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHA Short Refinance Program: 35 Applications Through October, Setting Stage for Possible TARP Fund Recapture?

The FHA Short Refinance program for underwater borrowers was initially announced with some fanfare, and an allocation of up to $14 Billion in TARP funding, in March of this year. (The TARP allocation has been reduced to $10.8 Billion, according to accounting in the latest Special TARP IG Quarterly Report).  

(HUD announced the formal start of the program in early September with August HUD PR HERE; PR when the program was first announced in March is HERE).

FHA Outlook reports for September and October available HERE show a total of 35 applications for the FHA Short Refinance program had been received.

Recent policy guidance from Ginnie Mae HERE would allow FHA Short Refinance loans to be included in Ginnie Mae pools, but the program requirement for a investor principal reduction is the reason that I long ago said this program seemed likely to under perform.

If Congress and the Administration are looking at ways of reducing the budget deficit it would certainly appear that a significant portion of the TARP allocation for this program MAY be subject to recapture as it seems highly likely that this program will be under utilized.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

HAMP Report With October Data is Out; Pace of Permanent Modifications Continues to Slow.

I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through October in tables I constructed HERE.

CONTINUED Observation: Pace of Monthly Loan Modifications Continues to Slow, Monthly Permanent Modification Graph Added for Oregon.

   1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications continue to shrink to 1,669; that is down by 7,219 or 81% since the start of the year. (Nationally, the decline is 80% since the start of the year).
   2. An active trial loan modification inventory reduction of 160 in October is at a FAR slower pace than ALL proceeding months during the year. At the slower October pace Oregon would run out of trial loan modifications that could be converted to permanent mods but it would now take 10 months, a much longer period than in earlier months.

  3. Oregon's inventory of active permanent loan modifications continues to increase, reaching 5,273, an increase of 503% (4,398) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 503% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 628%.
   4. Oregon's permanent loan modification inventory increased by 120 during October but that number is down dramatically from the peak month increase of 741 in April, and a 594 increase in January 2010. I have added a new GRAPH HERE that shows the monthly decline in the rate of permanent modifications added in Oregon.

Illustrating the impact of the decline in the pace of permanent modifications at the metro level, Bend metro data show that only 4 permanent mods were added to the inventory during October. This is down from 9 added during September and as many as 68 added during January 2010.
 

The HUD National Housing Scorecard is available HERE.

The national HAMP report I used to construct my tables for October IS HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Monthly Pace of HAMP Loan Modifications in Oregon Continues to Decline.

I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through September in tables I constructed HERE.

Main Observation: Pace of Monthly Loan Modifications Continues to Slow

   1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications continue to shrink to 1,829; that is down by 7,059 or 79% since the start of the year. (Nationally, the decline is 78% since the start of the year).
   2. An active trial loan modification inventory reduction of 357 in September is at a slower pace than all proceeding months during the year. At the slower September pace Oregon would run out of trial loan modifications that could be converted to permanent mods but it would take six months, a longer period than in earlier months.

  3. Oregon's inventory of active permanent loan modifications continues to increase, reaching 5,144, an increase of 488% (4,269) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 488% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 603%.
   4. Oregon's permanent loan modification inventory increased by 178 during September but that number is down considerably from monthly increases of 268 in August, 311 in July, 471 in June, 499 in May. and a 741 increase in April. 
At the metro level Bend data show for example that only 9 permanent mods were added during September, compared to as many as 68 added during January 2010.
The HUD National Housing Scorecard should be soon available HERE (website is currently down as of Tuesday afternoon).

The September national HAMP report I used to construct my tables IS HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

August HAMP Oregon Data: Pipeline of Trial Shrinkage Less Than Prior Months, Pace of Increases in Perm Loan Mods Continues to Slow.

In my Oregon July HAMP post HERE, I speculated that a declining pipeline of active trial loan modifications could reduce and eventually eliminate permanent loan modifications in as short as a three month period.

It appears that trend was somewhat reversed in August, as there is now about a four month inventory of trial loan modifications remaining at the August pace.  However, the pace of increase in monthly trial loan modifications continues to decline from the pace of earlier months, and was the lowest for any month this year.

I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through August in tables I constructed HERE.

Some Observations: Slowing Shrinkage of Temp Loan Mod Pipeline; Monthly Permanent Loan Mods Increasing , but at Slowest Pace of Year.

   1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications continue to shrink to 2,186; that is down by 6,702 or 75% since the start of the year. (Nationally, the decline is 74% since the start of the year).

   2. An active trial loan modification reduction of 561 in August was less than half of the 1,270 active trial inventory reduction in July. This means that Oregon would run out of trial loan modifications that could be converted to permanent mods in FOUR months, instead of the three months remaining at the JULY pace. This improvement MAY signal that SOME applicants ARE successfully producing the COMPLETE documentation required since June to enter into a trial loan modification. The Oregon trend mirrors the national trend which saw a slowing of the reduction in trial loan modification to 53,413 units, from a July trial loan modification inventory reduction of 108,143 loans.

   3. Oregon's inventory of active permanent loan modifications continues to increase, reaching 4,968, an increase of 468% (4,093) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 468% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 576%.

   4. Oregon's permanent loan modification active inventory increased by 268 in August, but that is down from an increase of 311 in July, a 471 increase in June, a 499 increase in May. and a 741 increase in April. The August increase was also the lowest for any month this year.

The HUD National Housing Scorecard through August is HERE.

The national HAMP report through July is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated: Eligibility Excel Tool for New FHA Underwater Refinance Program Illustrates Challenges Facing Applicant.

Update:
Made link to prior blog post active/corrected two typos.
---------------

The administration is rolling out a new underwater borrower FHA refinance program. (My prior blog post is HERE). 

After reviewing the FHA mortgagee letter for this program it was clear that to be eligible for the program homeowners would have to pass a number of eligibility tests. 

To help clarify what those eligibility questions are, and what answers are required to be eligible for the new program I

have constructed an Excel worksheet HERE, which ONLY requires the user to select "Yes" or "No" answers to 12 questions, to determine IF they are ELIGIBLE for this new program . 

"Eligible" does not mean borrower is qualified and will GET loan, just that they have no immediate factors that would disqualify them from consideration. 

Note that an incorrect answer to ONE of the 13 questions will disqualify the homeowner from eligibility. I have set the default position for each answer to disqualify the borrower, to qualify the borrower each default answer needs to be changed to the opposite answer.  (I have password protected the sheet to prevent inadvertent entries).

I would encourage readers to share this Excel file with housing counselors and agencies as a tool that may help clarify the requirements of this new program and help homeowners understand why they may or may not be eligible for this program.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Foreclosure Forum Notes

Organizational Reps at Foreclosure Meeting

Held last night at St Johns Community Center, Co-Hosted by Oregon State Rep Nina Kotek and US Congressional Rep Earl Blumenauer.  

Reps from several non profits, DCBS and OHCS also in attendance. (Pic is of Hacienda, DCBS, Our Oregon, and OHCS reps).

I estimate attendance at around 75 for this two hour meeting, pretty good for a rainy Tuesday evening. My notes:

• OHCS rep said Hardest Hit program operational in December.
• Hacienda rep indicated that they have a regular Wednesday meeting on Foreclosure Prevention. (No class this week, according to website).
• Kotek indicated that she was aware of Hardest Hit allocation issues and concerns from Deschutes and Jackson county about HH allocations.
• Blumenauer stayed for only first half hour because of sick child, indicated he though possible future bankruptcy reform could help apply pressure to banks to be more responsive on loan modifications. 
• Counseling agencies stressed importance of...counseling. 
• As is likely case in most public meetings today, there were a few attendees who wanted to vent about TARP etc, and appeared to me that with several using hand held video, there may have an effort by some to play "gotcha". Despite repeated interruptions, Kotek kept the meeting civil and on track.
• My guess is about 25 attendees indicated personal experience in dealing with loan modifications. These attendees have specific stories about difficulties in working with loan servicers on loan modifications, with files lost, long delays, and inconsistent answers. Legal Aid and other reps response was to stress importance of documentation of contacts including names and dates/Kotek indicated willingness to look at any state legislation that might better help regulate servicers who clearly are part of the problem with HAMP program. 
• DCBS rep reminded attendees of new requirement to fully document income etc BEFORE family will be offered a trial modification under HAMP. (Prior practice of accepting into trial mod before full documentation may have contributed to high drop out rates from loan mod trials). 
• Pretty clear that NO one knew about volume of HAMP loan mods that HAVE occurred in Oregon or nationally (my most recent related post HERE) , and I heard only one person who MAY have received a permanent loan modification under HAMP. 
• Audience was given HAMP Admin website HERE as source of lender rules for HAMP program.  While this site is an authoritative source, material is so dense and lengthy that most consumers likely will feel lost (like I often feel when looking at HAMP guidance).
• Our Oregon has new "Oregon Hoodwinked" website HERE on Oregon foreclosures.

I encourage other attendees to add comments to this post on items I may have missed. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

July Oregon HAMP Loan Mod Data: 1. Pace of Permanent Loan Modifications Slowing 2. Remaining Trial Loan Mods Could Drop to ZERO Within 3 Months.

During July the pace of permanent HAMP loan modifications decreased in Oregon and in Oregon metro areas, while the rapid decline in active trial loan modifications signals that the pipeline for future permanent loan modifications could dry up completely within three months. (These trends are also occurring nationally).

I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through July in tables I constructed HERE.

Some Observations:

1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications continue to shrink to 2,747; that is down by 6,141 or 69% since the start of the year. (Nationally, the decline is 67% since the start of the year).
2. With an inventory reduction of 1,270 active trial loan modifications in July, the 2,747 remaining inventory of Oregon trial loan modifications could be reduced to zero within three months.  This mirrors the national trend; the remaining active trial loan modification inventory of 255,934 loans could be eliminated within three months at the pace of the July reduction of 108,143 loans.
3. Oregon's inventory of active permanent loan modifications continues to increase, reaching 4,700, an increase of 437% (3,825) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 437% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 535%.
4. Oregon's permanent loan modification active inventory increased by 311 in July , but that rate of monthly increase is DOWN significantly from a 471 increase in June, a 499 increase in May. and a 741 increase in April. With a reduction in the trial loan modification pipeline occurring, it seems likely that the pace of monthly permanent loan modifications will continue to decrease.

The National Housing Scorecard through July is HERE; the national HAMP report through July is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.