In my Oregon July HAMP post HERE, I speculated that a declining pipeline of active trial loan modifications could reduce and eventually eliminate permanent loan modifications in as short as a three month period.
It appears that trend was somewhat reversed in August, as there is now about a four month inventory of trial loan modifications remaining at the August pace. However, the pace of increase in monthly trial loan modifications continues to decline from the pace of earlier months, and was the lowest for any month this year.
I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through August in tables I constructed HERE.
Some Observations: Slowing Shrinkage of Temp Loan Mod Pipeline; Monthly Permanent Loan Mods Increasing , but at Slowest Pace of Year.
1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications continue to shrink to 2,186; that is down by 6,702 or 75% since the start of the year. (Nationally, the decline is 74% since the start of the year).
2. An active trial loan modification reduction of 561 in August was less than half of the 1,270 active trial inventory reduction in July. This means that Oregon would run out of trial loan modifications that could be converted to permanent mods in FOUR months, instead of the three months remaining at the JULY pace. This improvement MAY signal that SOME applicants ARE successfully producing the COMPLETE documentation required since June to enter into a trial loan modification. The Oregon trend mirrors the national trend which saw a slowing of the reduction in trial loan modification to 53,413 units, from a July trial loan modification inventory reduction of 108,143 loans.
3. Oregon's inventory of active permanent loan modifications continues to increase, reaching 4,968, an increase of 468% (4,093) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 468% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 576%.
4. Oregon's permanent loan modification active inventory increased by 268 in August, but that is down from an increase of 311 in July, a 471 increase in June, a 499 increase in May. and a 741 increase in April. The August increase was also the lowest for any month this year.
The HUD National Housing Scorecard through August is HERE.
The national HAMP report through July is HERE.
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.