PUA State Reported Data on Payments, Overpayments, Fraud Overpayments and Recovered Fraud Overpayments Through 1st QTR. 2021.

I've read a number of news stories that report large sums of unemployment insurance overpayments and fraud. 

Missing in many of these stories are links to ACTUAL replicable data sources. 

While it is clearly possible/likely that there IS a substantial (and unexplained) gap between overpayment and fraud overpayment rates in the last year compared to past years, states DO report quarterly or monthly data on payments, overpayments and fraud overpayments and recoveries. 

Referencing the actual data as reported by states seems like an important starting point for stories about overpayment and fraud. 

The PDF HERE and pasted below provides my analysis of the relevant data for the 100% federally funded PUA program for CY 2020 through the first quarter of CY 2021.  

It includes [at the top left] a link to download a CSV file with data from relevant report (ETA 902P), the identification of the FOUR columns where relevant data can be found, and three calculated columns that show rates of overpayment, established fraud, and collections of established fraud.  (The 902P source report is monthly, unlike several other UI program overpayment and fraud overpayment reports that are quarterly).

As noted at the bottom of the table a handful of states (including Florida) have not filed their 1st quarterly report as of June 21st and the PUA data does NOT include FPUC payments made to PUA recipients. [I checked and the last PUA report filed from Florida was September 2020]. 

Observations on STATE REPORTED PUA data:

1. PUA payments were $96.8 billion. In Oregon they were $712 million. 
2. Established PUA overpayments totaled $4.4 billion, In Oregon, they were $1.2 million. The LARGEST PUA overpayment total was $1.3 billion in Illinois. 
3. Established overpayments averaged $45.90 per $1,000 of PUA payments, In Oregon, they averaged $1.75. 
4. Established fraudulent overpayments were $494 million. In Oregon they were $196,000. The LARGEST fraudulent overpayment total was in Ohio at $162 million. 
5. Recovered fraudulent overpayments totaled $4.9 million. In Oregon there were no fraudulent recoveries. New York reported the LARGEST total fraudulent recoveries at $3.8 million.
6. Recovered fraudulent overpayments recovered averaged 5 cents for ever $1,000 in PUA benefits.  In Oregon there were no fraudulent recoveries. 

There are many more data elements in the 902P report than those I highlighted. Here's a data map of those data elements (page 47 in the complete data map file). 

I encourage researchers and the media to ground research and reporting on the actual data as reported by the states. 

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