2018-2020 Oregon Housing Production: Portland Beat Their Target by 20%; IF The Rest of State Had Matched Portland's Production Rate Statewide Production Would Have Increased By 42%

In my last post I reported the count of housing units produced in Oregon's 49 largest cities from 2018-2020 and showed in two scenarios statewide projected production against the 3 year goal of producing 90,000 housing units.

Scenario 1: Assumed that the rest of the state outside these 49 cities produced units at the same rate as the 49 cities (14.01 units per 1,000 census 2020 housing units). In this scenario production would have been 76,218 units, or 13,782 units below the 90,000 unit goal. 

Scenario 2 : Assumed that the rest of the state outside these cities produced units at 1/2 the rate as the 49 cities (14.01 units per 1,000 census 2020 housing units). In this scenario production would have been 60,429 units, or 29,751 units below the 90,000 unit goal 

In this post I highlight the City of Portland performance and present revised Scenarios to illustrate what production would have been IF the other 48 cities matched Portland's rate of production (19.91 units per 1,000 census 2020 housing units) and the rest of the state also matched Portland's rate (Revised Scenario 1) OR half of Portland's rate of production (Revised Scenario 2). (9.95 units per 1,000 census 2020 housing units).

2018-2020 Recap: Portland's Beat Their Housing Production Target by 20%

• Portland had 17% (302,034) of the statewide housing units (1,813,747) in the 2020 census so their share of a 3 year 90,000 unit production goal should be 14,987 units.. 

• They produced 18,040 units, 20%/3,053 more units than their target. 

• Their rate of production was 19.91 units per 1,000 housing units in the 2020 census.

Revised Scenario 1: What IF the Other 48 Cities  AND the Rest of the State Matched the Portland Production Rate?

Scenario 1 and Revised Scenario 1 table pasted below shows that Oregon would have EXCEDDED its 90,000 unit goal if the other 48 cities had a the same rate of production as the Portland. 

Revised Scenario 1 increases production vs the Original Scenario 1 from 76,218 to 108,332 units. That's an increase of  32,114 units/42%, reversing a shortfall of 13,782 units to a surplus of 18,332 units. 

Revised Scenario 2: What IF the Other 48 Cities Matched the Portland Production Rate AND the Rest of the State Produced at 1/2 of the Portland Production Rate?

(I previously explained that I thought Scenario 2 was more realistic as it seems unlikely to me that smaller communities had the total infrastructure needed to support production at the scale of large cities). 

Scenario 2 and Revised Scenario 2 table pasted below shows that Oregon would have still been below the 90,000 unit goal if the other 48 cities had a the same rate of production as the Portland but the rest of the state only produced units at 1/2 the Portland rate (9.95 units per 1,000 instead of  Portland's 19.91 units per 1,000). 

Revised Scenario 2 increases production vs the Original Scenario 2 from 65,429 to  85,890 units. That is an increase of 25,461 units/42%, reducing the shortfall from 29,571 to 4,110 units.  

Bottom Line:  

1. If other large cities and the rest of the state matched Portland's rate of production Oregon would have EXCEDED its 90,000 unit goal for 2018-2020 by 18,332 units 
2. If other large cities matched Portland's rate of production and the rest of the state had a production rate HALF of Portland's this would have reduced the statewide production shortfall by 25,461 units/ to 4,110 units.
3. A statewide annual production rate of 16.55 units per 1,000 units in the 2020 census is required to meet an annual production target of 30,000 units. The 3 year production gap from 2018-2020 increases the annual production rate required from 2021-2027 to achieve an increase of 300,000 units over 10 years. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.