3 County PDX 2010-2020: Of 37,000+ Annual Job Openings, 60% Will be In Jobs with Average Pay Less than 60% MFI.

I have created a new Excel SkyDrive workbook HERE (and embedded below) that includes counts of 2010 jobs and average wages and projected 2010-2020 job openings and average wages for 791,000 jobs (and 600+ occupations) in Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington counties.  

In addition to including both individual worksheets previously posted for Clackamas and the combined Multnomah and Washington county workforce areas, I also included a simple summary sheet that is the default view when the file is opened. That summary shows:

1. 57% of 791,000+ 2010 jobs had average wages at or below 60% of 2010 HUD Median Family Income. (HUD 2010 Median Family Income was $71,200, so the 60% MFI threshold was $42,720 or $20.54 per hour)
2. 60% of 37,000+ annual job openings from 2010-2020 are for jobs with 2010 average wages at or below 60% of 2010 HUD Median Family Income.       

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 
        

2010-2020 Multnomah/Washington Job Openings: 59% Will be in Jobs with Average Pay That Is Less than 60% of Median Family Income.

Readers will recall my prior post HERE showing that 66% of projected job openings in Clackamas County from 2010-2020 were projected to be for occupations where average salaries were below 2010 60% median family income.(HUD 2010 median family income was $71,200, so the 60% MFI threshold was $42,720 or $20.54 per hour)

I replicated the same analysis for the Washington and Multnomah Workforce area; my observations:

1. In 2010, 56% of jobs in Multnomah and Clackamas County had average wages of 60% or less of 2010 HUD median family income.
2. From 2010-2020 of the 30,866 projected annual job openings (new jobs or replacement of current workers) 18,132 (59%) will be for jobs that had 2010 average wages at or below 60% of HUD median family income.

Notes:

• Scroll to the left/right up down in the embedded version to see the full worksheet.
• In the Excel workbook, the occupation link in left column is active, clicking will provide MUCH more detail for that occupation, including current job openings in that occupation.
• File is set up in landscape mode with legal paper size; printed document runs 22 pages.
• Occupations are listed in descending order of the projected number of annual job openings.

Excel table with that data is HERE, and also embedded below.



Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Update: Portland Metro Housing Choice Gets Big Boost with HACC and Home Forward Voucher Mobility Pilot.

Update: Home Forward has PR on their website HERE. 

====
Home Forward and the Housing Authority of Clackamas County have taken a substantial step to improve housing choice for the 7,500+ HUD housing choice tenant based rental voucher holders in Clackamas and Multnomah counties. 

On June 21st Clackamas County Commissioners authorized the Housing Authority of Clackamas County to enter into a housing voucher mobility pilot MOU with HOME Forward that will begin on July 1. The Board for Home Forward had approved a similar resolution on May 15th.

More background and a version of that MOU can be found in Home Forward YTD Board Packages link HERE in the right pane. (Be patient, the file will take a few moments to view; the MOU is from the May 15th meeting and begins at [current] pdf page 163).   

I would check the Clackamas County Housing Authority and Home Forward websites frequently for updated and complete information about this new cross county effort to improve housing choice. 

My understanding is that, effective for new vouchers issued after July 1 (and for vouchers renewing after Sept 1):

1. Voucher holders in each county will be able to freely use their vouchers in either county. 
2. Each county will keep full funding authority for their vouchers, whether used in their county or in the neighboring county. 
3. The two housing authorities have developed a standardized set of understandings about how inspections, rent determinations, and utility allowances will be determined and who does what. 
4. The housing authorities will conduct expanded outreach to landlords and tenants to explain how the changes will work.

Clackamas County Payment Standards Moving to Zip Code Level to Better Capture Local Market Conditions. 
As part of this pilot Clackamas County is also adopting changes in their payment standards to move them to the zip code level for the first time (Home Forward already uses zip code level payment standards).

Use of more localized payment standards can make vouchers more attractive to landlords as rents will better reflect local market conditions and can also lead to expanded housing choice and opportunity for voucher holders. 

Lake Oswego and West Linn Receive Biggest Boosts to Housing Payment Standards
Readers will recall the recent Oregonian LOCKED OUT story HERE that detailed very little use of HUD housing vouchers in Lake Oswego and West Linn. 

Zip codes in Lake Oswego and West Linn (97034, 97035, and 97068) will move to 110% of the HUD published Portland Metro area Fair Market Rent, the maximum level the housing authority can approve. The 2 bedroom voucher payment standard in these three zip codes will increase by 10% to $980 from the prior $891 payment standard. 

Payment standards are also increasing from their current level in other Clackamas County zip codes; I do not have details so you will need to check with Housing Authority of CC for details in these other zip codes.

Note that voucher rents for individual units in both counties will continue to be subject to housing authority rent reasonableness determinations; this means that a voucher rent for a specific unit will not automatically be at the new payment standard for that zip code, but will also reflect the competitive features and condition of the unit.

Editorial Comment: This is the most concerted and coordinated effort I have seen to date to improve housing choice for HUD voucher holders in Oregon. 

I applaud the staff and leadership in both housing authorities for doing the detailed grunt work required to think through the coordination of work flow and the standardization of procedures and also to the HA Boards for having the confidence to move beyond "turf issues". 

I hope that robust outreach to landlords and tenants will address some of the concerns that landlords have historically had about the use of vouchers and will expand voucher holder willingness to consider opportunity areas outside of their normal comfort zone. 

While there are likely to be hiccups along the way that require program tweaks, this effort will test:

1. How willing voucher tenants are to USE the more robust housing choice offered by this pilot.
2. How willing suburban landlords, especially in Lake Oswego and West Linn, are to USE the largest HUD rental program in Oregon. [The absence of LIHTC projects (who are required to accept voucher holders) may impact this metric].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Metro Council Brown Bag Session March 22nd, 12:30-1:30 PM Will Focus on Native Americans in Multnomah County.

I saw public notice about this meeting in Saturday Oregonian. Brown Bag lunch is from 12:30 to 1:30 with Council Meeting at 2 PM.

I don't see specific agenda or packet of information for that brown bag meeting on the Metro web site, but March 20th Metro Work Session agenda includes advance preparation item, and the meeting package HERE [starting on PDF page 41] of that Council Work Session has a 119 page report.  The title for that agenda item is The Native American Community in Multnomah County: An Unsettling Profile.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Tribune Story on Multnomah County Foreclosures.

Written by Steve Law. Printer friendly version of story is HERE. Includes zip code level information.

(Story references my estimate of Oregon ARM Subprime and Alt A homes facing reset over next year. Link to that estimate in my earlier blog post HERE).

HAP 2008 Board Packets Updated Thru June.

I have added Housing Authority of Portland Board of Director meeting packages for April, May, and June to my single PDF file of year-to-date 2008 HAP Board meeting packages.

The most recent 2008 year to date compilation will always be available at the same URL: http://www.housepdx.com/pdfs/housing/08hapytdboardpackets.pdf

Estimate: Recent HAP Voucher Payment Standard Increase Added $50+ Million to Multnomah Rental Property Values.

HAP has recently raised its housing voucher payment standards. For a 2BR unit the increase was $37 per month, or $444 per year. As all of that increase adds to an owners income (and there is no additional cost for the tenant) I started thinking about how much of boost in property value would result from this change in payment standards.

The answer may surprise you--it did me. Using a cap rate of 6.5% and an estimated 7,500 HAP vouchers (using HAP's most recent dashboard report HERE), and assuming all 2br units, I calculate that rental property values were increased in Multnomah County by more than $50 Million because of this one simple change.

Think I'm wrong or would like to estimate using a different cap rate,or a different number of vouchers,or a different change in payment standards? You can do so by downloading and inputting your own values in this MS Excel HUD Voucher Property Value Impact Estimator HERE. (Feedback always welcome, including improvements and identification of any errors).